While the recent volcanic activity by Mt Agung has disrupted flights to Bali, and airlines have no doubt suffered cancelled flights and lost profits, the market for flights between Darwin and Bali remains very strong.
The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics publish monthly passenger numbers on each route in and out of Australia. Their most recent data is up to September 2017, well before Mt Agung started to get active again.
In the year to September 2017 63,695 passenger traveled from Darwin to Denpasar, across both Jetstar and AirAsia. Based on 180 seat A320 aircraft this is equivalent to just under 7 full aircraft each week. Over this period there were on average 8 flights per week, 4 each by Jetstar and AirAsia. Putting aside busy times when extra flights may have occurred, this implies a very healthy average occupancy rate of 85%.
So aside from recent interruptions by Mt Agung, the market is strong and there should be no reason for either airline to exit the market. Time will tell if Jetstar are able to reaffirm their confidence in the market and whether AirAsia resumes or another airlines takes on the route, which has more often than not been served by two carriers over the past 3-4 decades.
Phillippa Butt
NT News | 14 December 2017
JETSTAR “remains committed” to Darwin but has not ruled out cancelling flights to Bali in the wake of AirAsia pulling out of the Northern Territory.
The uncertainty comes after the NT News revealed on Wednesday that AirAsia was pulling out of the Northern Territory from the end of January.
In a statement, a Jetstar spokesman said the airline, which will be the only choice for flights between Darwin and Bali, would look at its options.
“We will keep a close eye on demand on this route and look at our options. We remain committed to Darwin, where Jetstar operates 70 flights weekly to six destinations.”
Jetstar added three extra Bali services per week over December and January. The airline carried 35,000 people between Darwin and Bali in the 2016-17 financial year.
Deputy Chief Minister Nicole Manison moved to reassure Territorians they would still be able to get to Bali for weekend getaways.
“Uncertainty created by the imminent eruption of Mt Agung has had a significant impact on holiday demand into Bali and has disrupted flights over the month,” she said. “These factors underpin Air Asia’s commercial decision to suspend flights.
“The Territory Government’s ongoing efforts to attract direct flights from China have nothing to do with Air Asia’s commercial decision.”
An AirAsia spokesman confirmed to the NT News on Wednesday the airline would pull out of Darwin from January 28. However, it is understood many of the chatroom and call centre representatives were unaware of the cancellations until much later in the day, and emails were not sent out to confused Territorians until late Wednesday night. Contact AirAsia on iaa_darwin @airasia.com if you are affected.